Moscow, Abkhazia plans to discuss an agreement on military cooperation with Russia, which will ensure the permanent deployment of Russian peacekeepers on the Abkhaz territory, Abkhaz President Sergei Bagapsh told Russia’s news channel Vesti on Sunday.

He said that the Russian recognition of independent Abkhazia would promote investments and economic development.

“The first thing we will discuss with the Russian administration is a military agreement, so that no one dares to spill blood in South Ossetia and Abkhazia,” he said.

If the agreement is signed, the makeup of the Russian peacekeeping mission “may be slightly altered,” Bagapsh said. “They will still be peacekeepers, but a brigade of 2,500-3,000 servicemen deployed permanently so that no one dares to invade [the republic] and kill innocent people.”

He also thinks it possible to deploy Russian warships in Abkhaz seaports.

There is no threat of a new war in Abkhazia and South Ossetia after their recognition by Russia, Bagapsh said. “We understand that Georgia and NATO member countries have chosen power play instead of analyzing the recent events. We have certain concerns, but no fear. I think that some NATO countries do not think and act the way [Georgian President Mikhail] Saakashvili does. I do not think that a major war is possible,” he remarked.

Meanwhile, Abkhazia will mount its defense potential, the president said. “We won’t have a large army, but it will be centered around commando units of about 3,500-4,000 servicemen,” he said.

Abkhazia should reduce customs formalities on the Russian border and do the opposite on the Georgian border, Bagapsh said. Abkhazia will also seek relations with the international community and ask the Russian Foreign Ministry for support, he said.

The recognition of independent Abkhazia will bring investments, he said. Investors, including Russian businessmen, had shown interest in Abkhazia, but investments were deterred with high risks of war with Georgia, he said.

“The situation will change drastically. An investor can freely come to Abkhazia and choose a sphere of action – resorts, processing industries, ports or other sectors. We will be glad to welcome them,” Bagapsh said.

08.31.2008  Itar-Tass

Portuguese version

08.29.2008  PRAVDA

Moscow, Russia's Black Sea Fleet may eventually use the Abkhazian port of Sukhum as a naval base, former fleet commander said on Friday.

After Russia recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Abkhazian President Sergei Bagapsh suggested that Russia's Black Sea Fleet could use one of the ports in the republic to station its warships.

"Sukhum could easily host Black Sea Fleet ships, for instance a naval brigade of up to 30 vessels," said Admiral Eduard Baltin, commenting on Bagapsh's statement.

Baltin, 71, said a naval brigade might comprise a division of small ASW ships, a division of small missile ships or boats, and a division of minesweepers.

He said one of the large piers at the Sukhum port had not been used since the 1992 Georgian-Abkhazian conflict because several ships were sunk there.

"If we cleared up the harbor at the cargo terminal, we would be able to station the ships from the naval brigade there," the admiral said.

A group of Russian warships led by the guided-missile cruiser Moskva visited the Sukhum port on Wednesday, as part of a peacekeeping mission in Abkhazian territorial waters, according to the Russian Navy.

Russia has repeatedly said that it has no plans to withdraw its Black Sea Fleet from the naval base in Sevastopol in Ukraine until the bilateral agreement on the base's lease expires in 2017, despite numerous statements recently made by Ukraine that Russia should be prepared to withdraw its fleet.

Russia's Black Sea Fleet has stepped up security at its facilities in Ukraine to deter possible provocative acts following the conclusion of hostilities between Georgia and Russia over South Ossetia on August 12.

Ukraine, which is seeking NATO membership along with Georgia, supported Tbilisi in the conflict with Moscow.

08.29.2008  RIA Novosti

“You know yourselves how active they are in Georgia, in Batumi and Poti in part of strengthening NATO’s naval forces and we will be taking actions to respond,” Abkhazia’s president told Interfax, pointing out that they will endeavor to make it possible to temporarily station warships of Russia in Sukhum.

Bagapsh made the statement after visiting Moskva (Moscow) cruiser of Russia. It was the first official visit of the RF fleet to Abkhazia, he said. “They arrived by my personal invitation and paid a friendly visit, I hope not the last one,” Bagapsh emphasized.

08.27.2008  Kommersant

Minsk, Russia counts on Belarus to follow its lead and recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent countries, Moscow's envoy to Minsk said on Wednesday.

"Belarus can recognize or not recognize the sovereignty of South Ossetia and Abkhazia - this is the sovereign right of Belarus," Ambassador Alexander Surikov told reporters. "But to be honest, we are counting on the Belarusian side to recognize the sovereignty of Abkhazia and South Ossetia."

He said Russia considers Belarus as one of its closest allies.

Russia officially recognized the two republics as independent states on Tuesday, a move that has been strongly condemned by most Western countries. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said recognition was necessary to protect the republics from Georgian acts of aggression, following the August 8 military offensive in South Ossetia.

Surikov said Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko recently met with the leaders of the two republics in southern Russia.

"A meeting of the Belarusian president with [South Ossetia's Eduard] Kokoity and [Abkhazia's Sergei] Bagapsh took place in Sochi. Evidently, the Belarusian president gave them his support. But then the declaration of South Ossetian and Abkhazian independence was still a long way off," the diplomat said.

He said it was "difficult to say whether the Belarusian and Russian sides held consultations on whether or not Belarus would recognize South Ossetia's independence."

Belarus was slow to show support for Russia's "peace enforcement" operation that came in response to Georgia's attack on South Ossetia. On August 12, Surikov called for support from the Belarusian leadership, saying Moscow was "perplexed by the modest silence of the Belarusian side."

Stronger support quickly followed, with official declarations of sympathy for South Ossetians and offers of aid. A week after the Russian ambassador's comments, Lukashenko traveled to Sochi for a meeting with Dmitry Medvedev, and declared that the Russian president had displayed "wisdom" during the Georgian aggression.

08.27.2008  RIA Novosti

Moscow, President Dmitry Medvedev has issued instructions for Russia's Foreign Ministry to begin work on establishing diplomatic contacts with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, a Kremlin spokesman said Tuesday.

Medvedev signed decrees to recognize the independence of the two republics earlier in the day.

He instructed the Foreign Ministry to open negotiations with the South Ossetian and Abkhazian sides on drafting a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance, and submit it for signing.

Pending the treaties, the president ordered the Defense Ministry to ensure peace enforcement in the separatist provinces, following a request from their presidents, the Kremlin press service said.

Abkhazia's president said his country would soon sign a military cooperation agreement with Russia.

"These documents will be signed in the near future. We proposed signing a military cooperation agreement even before the recognition," Sergei Bagapsh said.

Asked whether Abkhazia feared ending up in international isolation following the recognition of its independence by Russia, he said that the republic's leadership "takes a realistic view of the situation."

Both houses of Russia's parliament voted unanimously Monday on a resolution asking the president to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, following requests from the leaders of both republics.

The move will further worsen Russia's relations with the West, already strained over Moscow's response to Georgia's attack earlier this month to retake South Ossetia.

U.S. President George W. Bush and German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned Medvedev against the move on Monday, urging him to respect Georgia's territorial integrity.

Russian officials have said Georgia lost its right to the two regions after launching a military offensive that killed hundreds of people and forced thousands to flee devastated South Ossetia.

08.26.2008  RIA Novosti

Sochi, Russia will defend Abkhazia and South Ossetia with all necessary support if they come under attack, President Dmitry Medvedev said on Tuesday.

"Under the decree recognizing independence of both republics, which I have signed, our country will help Abkhazia and South Ossetia to ensure their security and if they are attacked we will certainly offer them appropriate support," Medvedev told CNN.

Russia's president signed decrees earlier on Tuesday recognizing South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states and called on other countries to follow suit.

The president said that recognizing the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was in line with international law, adding that during the independence debate in Kosovo, Russia's western partners said Kosovo was a special case.

"Each case of recognizing independence is a special case," he said, "A special case in Kosovo, a special case in Abkhazia and South Ossetia."

Abkhazia and South Ossetia broke away from Georgia following the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. Georgia has long sought to bring Abkhazia and South Ossetia back under its control, while accusing Russia of trying to annex the republics.

"Until recently we tried to help restore [Georgia's] state unity, but the last nail was driven in following [Georgia's] decision to attack," Medvedev said.

He also said that Russia, while recognizing the independence of S. Ossetia and Abkhazia, had no intention of interfering in other conflicts on the post-Soviet territory.

"As to our involvement in other conflicts, we naturally are not going to do this," he said.

"However, Russia is a state which has to ensure its interests along the entire length of its border, this is absolutely clear," he added.

The move to recognize the rebel republics will further worsen Russia's relations with Western powers, already strained over what they called Moscow's disproportionate response to Georgia's military offensive on South Ossetia.

The United States and the EU have already condemned Russia's decision as "unacceptable and regrettable."

08.26.2008  RIA Novosti

Sukhum, Yesterday, Abkhaz politicians and thousands of demonstrators gathered at a mass meeting on Sukhum's Freedom Square asking Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev and the international community to recognize the country's independence.

If Russia annexed Abkhazia today, most Abkhaz would pull their semi-automatic weapons out from under their beds and fire into the air jubilantly. For most local residents, Abkhazia's status ceased to be under question long ago. "We've been Russian citizens for ages now!" they say. "We even toast to our Abkhaz and Russian leaders at our weddings — Bagapsh, Putin and Medvedev."

For most Russians, Abkhazia doesn't seem anything like a foreign country. Most Abkhaz speak Russian and business transactions are made in the Russian ruble. This aside, though, Russia cannot defy accepted international norms and simply annex the country.

I decided to ask Abkhaz Foreign Minister Sergey Shamba why Russia couldn't annex Abkhazia at a mass meeting yesterday on Sokhumi's Freedom Square. Thousands had gathered to ask Russia and the international community to recognize Abkhazia's independence.

"First," he said, "if Russia annexes Abkhazia, the West will go mad. They'll say Russia has assimilated foreign territory. Second, we intend to engage in close cooperation with Russia. And this also means militarily. Russia can have as many military bases here as they would like. Third, our voice will always be supportive of Russia on the international arena."

"And money? Will you have Abkhaz currency at some point, for instance?" I asked.

"Why?" the minister asked. "We're happy with the Russian ruble. Some countries use the dollar as their national currency."

Honestly speaking, with all the Abkhazia's political idiosyncrasies, annexing the country wouldn't be easy.

Russia would have to solve the Abkhaz refugee problem — ethnic Georgians who left their homes in Abkhazia during the Georgian-Abkhaz war in 1992. According to Tbilisi's data, there are over 100,000 such refugees. They were recently joined by an additional 1,500 Kodor Gorge residents after the South Ossetian conflict.

Officially, the Abkhaz government says no one is preventing these refugees from returning home. Unofficially, though, one highly positioned official told me: "Think about it. Do we really need this knife in our back? Georgia almost forcefully migrated their citizens onto our territory hoping to assimilate the Abkhaz population. These aren't refugees. They're former occupants."

Ordinary Abkhaz made this comment frequently at the meeting. Government officials were more reserved. But it was clear from their speeches that Russia's recognition of Abkhazia's independence is soon-coming.

08.22.2008  Komsomolskaya Pravda

Sukhum, Abkhazia will start deploying guards on Monday on its border with Georgia, where an operation to oust Georgian troops was completed last week, the abkhaz deputy defense minister said.

"Border guards will be deployed from [Monday]. We will use those areas formerly occupied by the Georgians," Garri Kupalba said on Sunday.

Abkhazia launched an attack on August 12 to force Georgia's troops from the northern part of the Kodor Gorge, the only part of the rebel province that was still controlled by Georgia. The operation, which Abkhazia said did not involve Russian troops, was completed on August 13.

Georgia launched an offensive to retake South Ossetia, on August 8. The majority of residents of South Ossetia hold Russian citizenship, and Moscow launched a massive operation to expel Georgian troops from the region and to reinforce its peacekeepers.

08.18.2008  RIA Novosti

Tbilisi/Berlin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that Georgia can still join NATO, despite a recent conflict with Russia over South Ossetia.

Merkel, who visited Tbilisi for talks with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili on Sunday, said support for Georgia's bid to join NATO was laid out in documents produced at the military alliance's summit in Bucharest in April.

"They contain, which is rather unusual, a very firm pledge that both Ukraine and Georgia will become NATO members," Merkel said. "The first review of the situation will take place in December."

NATO declined at the Bucharest summit to grant both Georgia and Ukraine a Membership Action Plan (MAP) which would have set the two former Soviet republics on the road to membership of the 26-nation military alliance. Germany and France expressed concern that doing so would unnecessarily antagonize Russia. Georgia's "frozen" conflicts in South Ossetia and Abkhazia were also cited. The countries had received strong U.S. backing for their bids.

Commenting on the recent conflict in Georgia, Merkel said it was a priority for Russian troops to pull out from the South Caucasus state as soon as possible.

"I expect the quick withdrawal of Russian troops, which, according to information at my disposal, has not so far been conducted the way we expected," Merkel said.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on Sunday during a telephone conversation with his French counterpart Nicolas Sarkozy that Russian troops would start their pullout from Georgia on August 18. Medvedev signed on Saturday a French-brokered plan on resolving the conflict in Georgia.

Georgia launched a major ground and air offensive to seize control of South Ossetia on August 8, prompting Russia to send in tanks and thousands of troops. Russia concluded its operation to "force Georgia to accept peace" on August 12.

At a meeting in the Black Sea resort of Sochi with Medvedev last Friday, Merkel called Russia's reaction "disproportionate." Her words echoed criticism of Moscow's response to the Georgian attack by U.S. President George Bush.

NATO foreign ministers will consider rendering military reconstruction aid to Georgia at a meeting on Tuesday, the German chancellor said. She also promised Saakashvili assistance in restoring Georgian infrastructure.

NATO refused last Tuesday to rule out the prospect of Georgia joining the military alliance in the future.

"I think that the Bucharest communique stands. The allies have said in Bucharest that one day Georgia will join NATO," Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer told a news conference following NATO talks with Georgia in Brussels.

08.18.2008  RIA Novosti

Sochi, Russia's president expressed doubt Friday that Abkhazia and South Ossetia could remain under the control of Tbilisi, and said any decision on their future status should reflect the people's will.

"Unfortunately, after the developments [Georgia's August 8 attack on Tskhinval] South Ossetians and Abkhazians are unlikely to be able to live within Georgia," Dmitry Medvedev told German Chancellor Angela Merkel at a meeting in Russia's Black Sea resort of Sochi.

He said it would take a "Herculean effort" to enable the territories to remain part of Georgia, adding that he would accept any decision on the two republics' status (Abkhazia and South Ossetia) that reflected their desires.

Medvedev warned the West against putting the blame for the developments on Russia alone, urging everything be done to minimize the consequences of the tragic events.

The German chancellor said: "One side alone is rarely to blame in a complicated conflict like this."

She said it was time "to go forward," not to look for exact reasons or analyze the past.

However, Merkel said Germany considered Georgia's territorial integrity a key point in the settlement of the conflict.

"We should respect the judgment of free countries, which, seeking accession to NATO, make their own free decisions," Merkel said.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier Russia refused to consider Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili an appropriate political partner, since he had issued "criminal orders" in launching Georgia's attack on South Ossetia.

Russia responded by sending thousands of troops and hundreds of tanks to force Georgian troops out of South Ossetia in a "peace enforcement" operation.

Merkel said that: "Taking into account Russia's description of the situation, I nevertheless say that the Russian reaction was disproportionate."

Russia has no objections to the deployment of an international peacekeeping force in the Caucasus, the Russian president said adding, however, that the republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia trusted only Russian troops.

"The party that has suffered from violence and aggression should have the final say in this situation," he said.

08.15.2008  RIA Novosti

Moscow, South Ossetia and Abkhazia will seek independence from Tbilisi under international law, the leaders of South Ossetia and Abkhazia said Thursday at a joint news conference in Moscow.

South Ossetia's Eduard Kokoity said Georgia's attack on August 8 made it possible for the two republics to seek further international recognition.

"Despite the severe blow to our nation, South Ossetians' will and striving for independence remains unchanged," he said. "We will seek independence in strict compliance with international law."

His pledge was echoed by Abkhazian President Sergei Bagapsh: "As to our independence, as to our progress toward this goal, no force will make us stop. The goal has been set, and we will advance toward this goal together."

Bagapsh said both republics ruled out the possibility of talks with Georgia on their status.

"There was a little possibility of establishing dialogue before the aggression in South Ossetia, through mediators, through the [UN] secretary general, and politicians visited, [now] there will be no dialogues, no talks with Georgia," Bagapsh said.

The Abkhazian leader added: "Georgia has hammered a huge rusty nail into its integrity."

Kokoity agreed, saying South Ossetia and Abkhazia had more grounds for recognition as independent states than Kosovo.

Kosovo proclaimed unilateral sovereignty from Serbia on February 17, and has been recognized by Washington and most European countries.

South Ossetia's leader also urged Europe to recognize the independence of his nation and Abkhazia as soon as possible so that stability could be established in the Caucasus.

Kokoity and Bagapsh signed a peace plan in Moscow at a meeting with the Russian president earlier Thursday. The French-brokered peace agreement, which requires an immediate ceasefire and withdrawal of forces, was agreed by Russia and Georgia on Tuesday.

Fighting erupted last week in the volatile South Caucasus region when Georgian forces launched an attack on Tskhinval, the capital of South Ossetia. In response Russia launched a counter offensive to expel Georgian troops from the region and to reinforce Russian peacekeepers.

The Abkhazian and South Ossetian foreign ministers are expected to arrive in Moscow on Friday to discuss the future status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

08.14.2008  RIA Novosti

Moscow, The leaders of South Ossetia and Abkhazia signed on Thursday a peace plan to resolve their conflict with Georgia at a meeting in Moscow with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

The peace plan was drawn up Tuesday during a meeting between Medvedev and his French counterpart Nicolas Sarkozy. Georgia has also accepted the plan.

It bans the use of force and any military action, and envisages free access to humanitarian aid. Under the agreement, Georgian Armed Forces should return to their bases, and Russian Armed Forces should pull back to their positions prior to combat.

Medvedev also told his South Ossetian and Abkhazian counterparts, Eduard Kokoity and Sergei Bagapsh, respectively, that it would be necessary to draft a legally-binding comprehensive ceasefire deal that should include guarantees from Russia, the EU and the OSCE.

Medvedev assured the two leaders that Russia's stance on the two republics remained unchanged and that Moscow would support any decision made by the people of the republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

"I want you to know and tell the people of South Ossetia and Abkhazia that Russia's position remains unchanged," Medvedev said. "We will support any decision made by the people of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in line with the UN Charter, the 1966 international conventions, and the Helsinki Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe," he said.

South Ossetia's Kokoity said the United States and Europe were responsible for the "genocide" in his nation.

"Georgia did not act on its own - most European countries, and the United States, are to blame for the genocide against the South Ossetian people," Kokoity said.

Georgia attacked the rebel province early on August 8 and later in the day Russia moved troops in to support its peacekeepers and force the Georgians out. South Ossetia's capital, Tskhinval, was mostly destroyed. Around 1,600 civilians and 18 peacekeepers were killed.

08.14.2008  RIA Novosti

Moscow, The Russian-French initiative addresses the parties to the conflict - Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated on Wednesday.

"The presidents of Russia and France have coordinated principles and are urging the parties to put their signatures under this Russia-French initiative," Lavrov said.

"By the parties, Georgia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia are meant," he specified.

"The main principle is to renounce the use of force, and this should be turned into a legally binding document."

"This task will require work with Tbilisi, Tskhinval and Sukhum," Lavrov noted.

Moscow, (RIA Novosti international affairs observer Ivan Zakharchenko) - Part of diplomacy is the skill of selecting words that leave room for maneuver.

The French President Nicolas Sarkozy, having taken on the role of intermediary to end the war in South Ossetia, deployed that skill in full measure to agree with Moscow and Tbilisi the principles for settling the problem in the wake of the Georgian strike on the South Ossetian capital Tskhinval.

Among the six principles agreed by the parties for the future of the self-proclaimed republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia the key point involved calling for international talks to determine their future status. In a similar case of the province of Kosovo, whose independence from Serbia was unilaterally accepted by the West, Russia repeatedly warned that such a move would trigger a chain reaction of secessions of various territories in various countries.

The principle of multilateral talks on the status of the self-proclaimed republics of the Caucasus, however, was challenged by Georgia and amended in a way that Russia eventually agreed to. The new version says that future talks will deal simply with settling the problems of Abkhazia and Ossetia and not specifically their status.

Other principles include non-use of force and an end to all hostilities, free access to humanitarian aid, withdrawal of Georgian troops to their permanent stations and Russian troops to the positions occupied before the start of hostilities.

Russian peacekeepers will take extra security measures until international mechanisms are put in place. The last point, on the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, was challenged by Tbilisi, which is also unhappy because Sarkozy's formulas say nothing about Georgia's territorial integrity.

Does this mean France questions Georgia's territorial integrity?

At his press conference in Moscow, the French President used the more general terms of diplomacy to explain that he preferred the terms "independence" and "sovereignty" to the words "territorial integrity". He said they provided the "broader formula" required to end the conflict.

Apparently, as a concession to Georgia, Sarkozy agreed to seek to change the sixth principle and to delete the words about the future status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia that imply a possible recognition of their secession from Georgia which took place de facto in the early 1990s also as a result of armed conflicts.

Russia went along with the amended and watered down formula, but did not renounce the possibility of international talks on the future status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

This was confirmed by the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov who told journalists that in international discussions it was impossible to solve the issues of the security of South Ossetia and Abkhazia "outside the context of status." The Minister said that they must be viewed from this angle with due account of the objective reality and the administrative systems in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

In other words, diplomatic language turned out to suit both the Russian and the Georgian side, while each side derived its own meaning from the formula.

At the same time, as some analysts believe, the adjustment of the sixth principle of settlement in the region gives France some room to maneuver as a mediator and current president of the European Union, and the possibility to challenge the view that South Ossetia is not unassailably a part of Georgia.

According to Alexander Pikayev, head of the Disarmament and Conflict Resolution Department at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russia has agreed to change the formula, first, because it is convinced that it can insist on the discussion of the status of South Ossetia by recognizing it. Second, Moscow did not want to create further problems with the U.S. and the European Union. However, Mr Pikayev told RIA Novosti that it would hardly have changed the American position, while Sarkozy could not afford to retreat, so the wording could well have been disputed.

In any case, even the tweaked version of the principles would have been enough to stop the hostilities. And yet everybody understands that the arguments about the future of self-proclaimed republics may reach a pitch when diplomatic language is cast aside.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

08.13.2008  RIA Novosti

Moscow, Russian Defense Ministry has cofirmed that a demand has been issued to Georgian armed units in the security zone in Abkhazia's Zugdidi district to lay down arms as a step towards preventing an escalation of the armed conflict.

"A well-equipped brigade of special task troops of the Georgian Interior Ministry is deployed in the zone of operations of the peacekeeping contigent," a spokesman for the Defense Ministry told Itar-Tass.

"The brigade has a strength of 1,500 fighters, who are not at all policemen, and an additionally assigned weaponry," he said.

"The demand for disarmament arises from the importance of preventing a further deterioration of the armed conflict, considering a possibility of provocations on the part of the Georgian special assignment troops," the spokesman indicated.

08.11.2008  Itar-Tass

Tbilisi/Brussels, The current fighting in South Ossetia represents a humanitarian threat to 75,000 civilians in the region and risks a larger regional conflict if it expands to other parts of Georgia including Abkhazia. All sides should immediately cease hostilities in South Ossetia, uphold humanitarian law, protect the civilian population and resume talks to stop an expansion of the conflict.

After weeks of low-level hostilities in South Ossetia, Georgia declared last night that it would restore constitutional order there and launched an offensive on the entity’s capital Tskhinval early on 8 August. Georgian forces have taken control of much of the city and most surrounding villages. It appears that only the northern Java region remains outside Georgian control. Moscow has said it will protect Russian citizens living in South Ossetia. It has sent in large numbers of tanks and reportedly bombed locations in Georgia.

A united international position is essential to forestall further conflict and loss of life. Russia, the United States and the European Union should push for a statement by the UN Security Council that demands:

• All sides immediately cease hostilities and withdraw all forces to prior positions.

• Georgia abide by all laws of war, protect the civilian population and guarantee access to humanitarian assistance.

• Russia refrain from taking steps outside its peacekeeping and negotiator mandate, and close its border to any paramilitaries attempting to cross into Georgia.  

• All parties work to ensure calm throughout the region, including Abkhazia.

It is particularly important that humanitarian assistance be immediately provided to the 75,000 civilians living in South Ossetia. Authorities need to ensure that there is full access to water, food and medical services. Roads should be open to emergency and humanitarian traffic. Persons who wish to evacuate should be allowed free passage, but no forced displacements should occur. All civilians and combatants should be assured protection according to international law and human rights obligations, and those who breach these obligations should be held accountable.

Crisis Group has repeatedly warned of the dangers of a resumption of intense conflict in South Ossetia in the absence of a substantive dialogue between the sides. Since hostilities resumed between Georgians and South Ossetians in summer 2004, confidence between the two has been low and the security situation volatile. While the South Ossetians have been demanding full independence from Georgia, Tbilisi has tried to encourage them to return to Georgia. All negotiations have been stalled since summer 2006 contributing to increasing tensions and the likelihood that any violence could quickly spiral out of control. Efforts were made on 7 August to hold talks between Georgians and South Ossetians in the presence of Russian representatives but failed.

There is a real danger that the conflict will expand beyond South Ossetia to Abkhazia and other parts of Georgia. Abkhazia has announced that it will deploy forces to its border with Georgia in the Gali region, in direct violation of the 1994 Moscow ceasefire agreement. Gali is predominantly populated by ethnic Georgians. All efforts must be made to assure their security and no extension of the conflict.

For several years, Georgia has accused Russia of supporting the South Ossetians with military aid and argued that it cannot be an honest broker in the conflict’s resolution. Tbilisi wants a change in the negotiations and peacekeeping formats in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. While this should be considered in principle, and with a greater role for the European Union, it is not the right time to insist on a change of negotiations format to restart talks. The immediate focus should be on ceasing hostilities and responding to the humanitarian crisis.

08.08.2008  International Crises Group

Moscow, The Republic of Abkhazia could assist South Ossetia if a full-scale war with Georgia breaks out, a Russian daily said on Tuesday.

Abkhazia's security council discussed on Monday measures to help South Ossetia, where at least six people were killed and more than 15 injured in shelling and alleged sniper attacks by Georgian troops on the regional capital of Tskhinval over the weekend, Nezavisimaya Gazeta said.

Russia has voiced concerns about a new spiral of violence, saying the threat of war between Georgia and South Ossetia is becoming increasingly real. Georgia has blamed separatists for provoking armed clashes.

"If Georgia starts fighting against South Ossetia, Abkhazia will open a 'second front,'" Abkhazia's deputy defense minister, Garri Kupalba, told the paper. "Abkhazia will without a doubt take part in military actions."

Kupalba gave no details as to where exactly Abkhazia could attack Georgia, the paper said.

Abkhazia's foreign minister, Sergei Shamba, said as quoted by the daily that Abkhazia would "do everything in its power to help South Ossetia within the framework of available agreements on mutual aid."

The paper suggested that Abkhazia, which has no common border with South Ossetia, could attack Georgian troops in the Kodor Gorge, located in Abkhazia and which Georgia occupied in 2006 in violation of a 1994 ceasefire agreement.

It could also cut the power supply from the hydropower plant on the Ingur River that separates Georgia and Abkhazia, the daily said. The hydropower complex's dam is in Georgia, while the plant is in Abkhazia.

Both South Ossetia and Abkhazia broke away from Georgia following the collapse of the U.S.S.R. in 1991 and bloody conflicts with Tbilisi.

Analysts have also warned about potential acts of sabotage on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which carries Caspian oil to Europe.

Abkhazia has for now dropped plans to participate in an internationally mediated meeting in Berlin that was to look into ways to resolve the Georgia-Abkhazia conflict, but said it could change its mind again.

"We are waiting for the West's response to developments in South Ossetia," Shamba told the newspaper. "We were invited to Germany due to security concerns in the region. However, today when the international community's involvement is really needed, it remains silent."

"This has caused us to doubt our Western partners' sincerity. Their intention to bring us to the negotiation table appears to be linked to a desire to demonstrate the presence of a negotiating process ahead of a NATO summit in December, when Georgia's admission to a Membership Action Plan will be discussed."

Georgia is bidding to join the Western military alliance, fueling a struggle for control of the strategic Caucasus region between Russia and the West. In April, NATO members decided to postpone offering Georgia membership of the program that paves the way to joining the bloc, but promised to review the decision in December. Georgia had received strong U.S. backing for its bid.

South Ossetia said on Tuesday more than 2,000 women and children were evacuated to neighboring North Ossetia, in Russia, following the attacks on Tskhinval at the weekend.

08.05.2008  RIA Novosti