Darya Sologub for RT, Will the EU allow Belarus to join its ‘Eastern Partnership’ program without any preconditions? Comments by some European officials suggest that may not be the case.

Minsk, which is looking to join the European framework for cooperation with several ex-Soviet republics, may be quietly coerced not to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Even though a Belarus-Europe dialogue is progressing, as witnessed by Javier Solana’s visit to Minsk last week to meet with Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, the question remains: will Belarus become a partner country in the EU’s ‘Eastern Partnership’ program? And if so, will Minsk be presented with a lengthy list of conditions by the Europeans?

A tentative agreement was reached by the European ministers of foreign affairs on February 23. It states:

“The Eastern Partnership is a multinational forum formed by the EU member states and six Eastern Europe and southern Caucasus states: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine. It is intended to facilitate the negotiation of free trade zones for services and agricultural products, as well as partnership agreements and visa agreements.”

In this paragraph, there is no mention of some strict criteria that Belarus must adhere to. However, previous documents carried the wording, “the level of Belarus’ participation in the EaP [Eastern Partnership] will depend on the overall development of EU-Belarus relations,” and “the Commission has launched the ‘Eastern Partnership Initiative’ to step up cooperation with… Belarus subject to fulfillment by that country of specific criteria relating to democracy, respect for human rights and the rule of law.”

However, Czech officials have already warned that the EU has not yet made any final decision on Belarus’ participation in the program. The EaP program must be approved by the EU Heads of State in March and adopted at an Eastern Partnership summit scheduled for May.

Although the EU seems to have dropped the idea of demanding the fulfillment of some “democratic criteria” from Belarus, some high-ranking European officials have recently made very interesting comments. On Monday (February 23), the EU Commissioner for External Relations and European Neighborhood Policy Benita-Ferrero Waldner said:

“If Belarus recognizes it [Abkhazia and South Ossetia], that will kick our relations back to the previous position. So far this has not taken place yet, but if it does, it will be a retreat, and freeze our rapprochement.”

Karel Schwarzenberg, Foreign Minister of the Czech Republic, which holds the EU's rotating presidency, followed lead:

“It is natural that Belarus [has] a sovereign parliament and the parliament of Belarus has its own decision [to make], but if they would recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia it would create a very, very difficult situation for Belarus, because Belarus would be out of the European consensus.”

Belarusian fulcrum point

Does this mean that Europe is blackmailing Belarus, coercing it not to recognize the two Caucasus republics in return for participation in the ‘European Partnership’? South Ossetian officials are certain this is the case.

After all, it is no secret that Minsk wants to be included into the partnership program because inclusion will give the Lukashenko government the most extensive and financed framework for dialogue with Europe. Moreover, the program offers direct cooperation between the regions of the EU and the partner countries, extended cross-border cooperation, as well as cooperation among partners on pilot regional development programs.

These sorts of programs receive initial financing of at least € 600 million. Needless to say, if Minsk becomes a partner country in the program, there will be many new ways for it to solve its current economic problems, which are mounting.

As the global economic crisis shows no sign of abating, Minsk needs options. And Russia alone cannot save it.

Across Belarus, many factories have already switched to a three-day work week and many have their warehouses packed to the rafters because demand inside the country and abroad has dropped since the crisis began.

Belarus needs money to fix its foreign trade imbalance, and the loans from Russia and the IMF that Minsk managed to secure in the last several months are insufficient. The country needs at least $US 4 billion of clear profit annually (9% of Belarusian GDP).

Perhaps such a financial windfall is possible in a fairy tale, but not when we consider the reality of Belarus’ present condition.

Moreover, by 2010 Minsk will have to pay off its loans from the International Monetary Fund (approx. $US 2.5 billion), as well as from Russia (around $US 2 billion), who is also getting slowly into the lending business.

Of course a ‘European Partnership’ is hardly a panacea under the circumstances, but it is definitely a chance to get some financing from Europe, to attract more investment, and find new markets for Belarusian enterprises.

Belarus understands that it cannot go too far in its rapprochement with Europe because this will rattle Moscow.

Lukashenko wants its westward maneuvers to look like a mutually beneficial move, under the bold assumption that “Europe at last realizes that it needs Belarus”.

Such a tactic allows the Belarusian leadership to save face, as well as a way to calm Moscow’s misgivings in the run-up to the 2010 presidential election.

Neighbor Envy

Europe is also displeased that Belarus continues to increase its cooperation with Russia. In February, for example, the two countries were quite close to creating a single currency, as well as signing a Constitutional Act.

Although they eventually concentrated on purely military and economic cooperation instead, the prospect of further Belarus-Russia integration disturbs Brussels. So, in many ways, the Belarusian demand for an unconditional dialogue with Europe is meant to appease Moscow.

In this context, Europe is playing the Abkhazia and South Ossetia card in broader terms of Belarus-Russia relations. However, we must assume that Europe will not be terribly concerned if Belarus decides to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Belarus joining the company of Nicaragua would not change the overall situation, or make the two Caucasian republics more independent. After all, last fall the European Union, despite Georgia’s heated objections, invited official representatives of the two republics to Geneva for official talks on the situation in the Caucasus.

It is highly likely that the Abkhazia and Ossetia issue is used by European policy-makers as a means to apply some pressure on Belarus and show that its ‘flirt’ with Russia is not welcome in Brussels.

The reaction by the Belarusian Foreign Affairs Ministry to comments by Benita-Ferrero Waldner and Karel Schwarzenberg was quite indicative: “Development of strategic partnership with Russia is the top priority task for Belarusian foreign policy”, said the first deputy foreign minister of Belarus Igor Petrishchenko on Wednesday. That comment was directed at both Moscow and to Brussels.

However, these verbal exchanges do not seem to influence the current situation in Belarus-Europe relations, at least until the Belarusian parliament has made a decision on Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Europe wants Belarus to play a fair game, and if Minsk wants to get its partnership pass in Europe without conditions it should not lay down any conditions itself. The EU is not going to let Belarus use the EaP as an argument for bargaining with Russia and it seems determined to persist in its opinion.

The strangest thing about all of this is that Russia does not seem to care. At least at the present moment.

02.27.2009  Russia Today

Belarusian analysts think that Brussels acts in accordance with real-politics – first comes Eastern Partnership, then democratization.

A matter of recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by Belarus is often discussed not only by Russian, Belarusian, but also European politicians. It should be noticed that a statement of foreign minister of Karel Schwarzenberg about negative consequences for Belarus if it recognizes Abkhazia and South Ossetia, evokes reaction by Sukhum.

“Belarus had strict requirements what concern such structure as “union state”, I mean Belarus-Russia “union”, famous Belarusian analyst Raman Yakauleski told Radio Racyja. “A question of recognition of these republics has been already settled. Lukashenka can’t delay this question any more. I’d like to remind that this issue is to be considered by the so called parliament on April 2, on the day of “unity” of the two peoples – Belarusian and Russian ones that make up this “union”. It looks like a gift from Lukashenka. Because it is he, not the “parliament”, who decides on this question.”

According to the analyst, Lukashenka conducts a dialogue with the West only to get financial resources.

“Lukashenka admitted it himself,” Raman Yakauleuski states. “The head of state said he was grateful to support of the Belarusian currency, given by the West.”

As Raman Yakauleuski says, recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by Belarus will influence only “the atmosphere of a dialogue”.

“What concerns a course of thawing of relations, chosen by Brussels, the dialogue will be continued,” the expert says. “Isolation was broken by Solana’s visit to Minsk. In this case, we should give proper respect to Lukashenka, who practically didn’t make any steps, with minimal concessions, and some times even without concessions, gained a breakthrough in political self-isolation. By the way, these moments were sounded by Andrei Sannikov and his democracy-minded associates at a press conference.”

The Belarusian expert calls EU’s policy real-politics, but not moral.

“We also should expect steps of Brussels after recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia,“ Yakauleuski notes. “The last events demonstrate real-politics, not moral one. This, I remind again, was expressed at the press conference of the Belarusian politicians. These politicians are Euro-realists. A good thought was expressed at the press conference –democratization should come first, and then a dialogue. But Brussels acts in the frames of real-politics, first comes Eastern Partnership, and then – democratization. They say other questions are more important today, but this political course has no prospect, though it is very profitable for Lukashenka.”

The expert thinks that an idea to include Belarus in the Eastern Partnership program appeared as a result of a beautiful mind of the European Union.

“I remind that Belarus wasn’t excluded from the list of this policy,” the expert says. “Another case is status of Belarus in this project. This policy will surely be continued. But we can’t make a precise forecast of the developments. These events can be called as mind game. But this game also has positive aspects: consolidation of Belarusian euro-realists. They won’t agree with the policy of Brussels. It is not only unprincipled, but also immoral. Eurocommissioners sometimes don’t see and maybe don’t want to see the real situation in the country. Andrei Sannikov stressed this, it’s a pity that Solana didn’t meet this politician, I think he made a mistake.”

02.26.2009  Charter 97

On Tuesday, the European Union cautioned it would not involve Belarus in the Eastern Partnership program if Minsk recognized the independence of the republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Belarusian analysts say President Alexander Lukashenko will try and strike a balance between the East and the West for as long as possible.

The first Eastern Partnership summit is scheduled for March 7. The EU plans to allocate 350 million euros in additional financial aid for six former Soviet republics, namely, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, until 2013.

Tough EU statements concerning Minsk's possible recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia's independence could become a new major irritant in relations between Moscow and Brussels.

"We are talking about open political pressure on Belarus, a sovereign state. And it is up to Minsk to decide how to react to such pressure," Russia's EU envoy Vladimir Chizhov said.

Minsk, which faces a difficult dilemma, is still refusing to openly argue with Brussels.

On Tuesday, President Lukashenko said the EU had not given Belarus any additional conditions.

Lukashenko made the comments following last week's visit to Minsk by Javier Solana, the EU's foreign policy chief.

Belarusian political analyst Valery Karbalevich said Minsk's policy of striking a balance between the East and the West was "optimal and so far successful," and that President Lukashenko would implement this policy as long as possible.

"This policy still brings results," Karbalevich said.

And it has been confirmed by the fact that Belarus has simultaneously received loans from Russia and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), he stressed.

Karbalevich declined to say how long this policy would be conducted, but said both the EU and Russia wanted to keep Belarus inside their respective geopolitical spheres of influence.

02.25.2009  RIA Novosti

Brussels, Improving relations between the European Union and Belarus will be suspended if Minsk recognizes Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent, an EU commissioner said on Tuesday.

The Belarusian parliament will consider recognizing the two republics on April 2. Russia recognized the two states as independent on August 26, 2008.

"As for the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, our position remains unchanged - we will not recognize it. And if Belarus recognizes it, that will kick our relations back to the previous position. So far this has not taken place yet, but if it does, it will be a retreat, and freeze our rapprochement," Benita-Ferrero Waldner, the EU Commissioner for External Relations and European Neighborhood Policy, told reporters from Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova.

Asked if the EU would cancel its invitation to Belarus to join its Eastern Partnership program, Waldner said it would be up to the European Council to decide how relations between Brussels and Minsk develop.

The program, which does not include potential membership in the EU but provides for political and economic relations with the organization, will be kicked off in Prague on May 7.

Under the program, Belarus and another five former Soviet republics, including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, will be granted 350 million euros ($448 million) in extra financial assistance by 2013.

The EU announced on Monday the inclusion of Belarus in its Eastern Partnership program. The announcement was made after a meeting of foreign ministers from the 27-nation alliance in Brussels, and comes less than a week after EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana's visit to the former Soviet republic.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said with confidence his country's bilateral relations with the EU would be improved after Solana's visit.

"His [Javier Solana's] visit to Minsk [last Thursday] boosted the movement towards each other for Belarus and the EU and will improve relations. I have no doubt about that," Lukashenko said.

02.24.2009  RIA Novosti

Geneva, A new round of talks on security and stability in and around the former Georgian republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia is set to begin in Geneva on Tuesday.

The two-day talks are expected to be attended by representatives of the two republics, Georgia, the EU, the OSCE, the UN, Russia and the United States. Both republics were recognized as independent states by Russia on August 26, 2008.

Grigory Karasin, a deputy Russian foreign minister and the head of the Russian delegation at the talks, said he expected a positive outcome from the Geneva meeting.

"We are set for a positive outcome. It is high time for Tbilisi and other world capitals to take a close look at the situation and understand that everyone needs stability and everyone needs to develop onward relations both with Abkhazia and South Ossetia," Karasin earlier told journalists.

Russia recognized the two republics as independent states two weeks after the end of a five-day war with Georgia last August, which began when Georgian forces attacked South Ossetia in a bid to bring it back under central control. Nicaragua has so far been the only other country to recognize the republics.

Shootings and abductions have been reported along the de facto border between Georgia and South Ossetia since after the armed conflict, with both sides blaming each other for continuing violence.

Both South Ossetia and Abkhazia split from Georgia amid bloody post-Soviet conflicts. The majority of residents of both republics have had Russian citizenship for many years.

02.17.2009  RIA Novosti

Sukhum, Abkhazia is seeking to restart regular security meetings on issues concerning its Gal District with representatives from Tbilisi, the republic's foreign minister said on Monday.

The practice of regular meetings between Georgia and Abkhazia with the participation of Russian peacekeepers and UN observers stopped in 2006 as relations between the two sides deteriorated.

The UN Security Council unanimously passed Resolution 1866 on February 13 extending the mandate for its UN observer mission in Georgia and Abkhazia "for a new period terminating on June 15, 2009." The resolution is aimed at giving more time to Russia and Georgia to resolve security and humanitarian issues as part of the Geneva talks.

"We believe that it is necessary to renew this mechanism taking into account the changes that have occurred," the Abkhazian foreign minister, Sergei Shamba said. "These meetings could include a fifth party with the participation of an EU representative."

The issue of restarting the security meetings is due to be raised at the next round of talks in Geneva on Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Shamba said.

Representatives from Georgia, the U.S., Russia, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, as well as delegations from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the EU and UN will take part in the talks in Geneva.

The Geneva talks began last October, following a five-day war between Tbilisi and Moscow over South Ossetia, however, the first round ended in failure when Georgia refused to sit at the table with representatives from Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russia also believed that it was useless to hold the meeting without representatives from the two former Georgian republics.

The second and third rounds in November and December also failed to produce any results either.

The holding of international discussions on regulating the Caucuses region is within the framework of a plan adopted by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, which they signed after the conflict.

Moscow recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states following the conflict with Georgia, which attacked South Ossetia in an attempt to regain control over the republic. Many people living in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia are Russian passport holders.

Russia's move was condemned by the United States and Europe. Nicaragua has so far been the only other country to follow Russia in recognizing the former Georgian republics.

02.16.2009  RIA Novosti

Moscow, The UN Security Council's resolution on extending a mandate of a UN observer mission in Georgia and Abkhazia will ensure stability in the region, Russia's Foreign Ministry said on Saturday.

The UN Security Council unanimously passed Resolution 1866 on February 13 to extend by another four months a mandate for its observer mission in Georgia and Abkhazia, recognized as an independent state by Russia.

"The adopted resolution will ensure security and stability in this region. Russia...is ready to start immediately the work on the Council's decision to set up the parameters of the future UN mandate," the ministry said in a statement.

The new UN document supports the Medvedev-Sarkozy ceasefire plan that ended a brief military conflict between Russia and Georgia last August and calls for the non-use of force in resolution of conflicts in the region.

The UN mission in the Georgia-Abkhazia conflict zone - formerly known as the United Nations Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG) - was deployed in 1993 to oversee a ceasefire following a bloody post-Soviet conflict that resulted in Abkhazia gaining de facto independence.

Moscow recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia after a five-day war last August with Georgia, which attacked the latter in an attempt to bring it back under the control of Tbilisi. Residents of both Abkhazia and South Ossetia have held Russian citizenship for many years.

Russia's move was condemned by the United States and Europe. Nicaragua has so far been the only other country to follow Russia in recognizing South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

02.14.2009  RIA Novosti

UN, The UN Security Council passed a resolution on Friday to extend by another four months a mandate for its observer mission in Georgia and Abkhazia.

The name of the mission was omitted from the text of the resolution in connection with demands from Abkhazia, a former Georgian republic recognized as an independent state by Russia.

Abkhazia had threatened not to allow UN monitors to continue working unless the mission's name reflected its independent status.

The current mandate was set to expire on Sunday.

The UN mission in the Georgia-Abkhazia conflict zone - formerly known as the United Nations Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG) - was deployed in 1993 to oversee a ceasefire following a bloody post-Soviet conflict that resulted in Abkhazia gaining de facto independence.

Moscow recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia after a five-day war last August with Georgia, which attacked the latter in an attempt to bring it back under the control of Tbilisi. Residents of both Abkhazia and South Ossetia have held Russian citizenship for many years.

Russia's move was condemned by the United States and Europe. Nicaragua has so far been the only other country to follow Russia in recognizing South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Russia's UN ambassador said on Friday the new resolution contained no mention of Georgia's territorial integrity.

"The text contains no mention of Georgia's territorial integrity, which speaks volumes," Vitaly Churkin said.

02.13.2009  RIA Novosti

Sukhum, No European Union observer mission will be admitted to Abkhazia, the country's President Sergei Bagapsh said during his meeting with EU Special Representative on South Caucasus Peter Semneby, the president's press office said. The Abkhazian side is concerned over the future of the U.N. mission, but a technical extension of the mission's mandate would be unacceptable. According to Bagapsh, Sukhum is strongly opposed to the idea of replacing the U.N. mission with E.U. observers, and efforts to have Moscow influence Abkhazia's decision will be to no avail, as such issues can only be resolved directly with the Abkhazian government.

As for economic help or development assistance, Bagapsh noted that Abkhazia has never turned to the EU for any kind of aid, and everything done in the republic was either done by their own efforts, or with Russia's assistance. By contrast, Georgia received considerable contributions from western countries for its military infrastructure right after the August attack, Bagapsh observed.

02.13.2009  RBC

Sukhum, Abkhazia has given its consent to prolongation of the UN mission, in accordance with the coordinated draft of the resolution by the UN Security Council, Abkhazia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba said in a letter addressing UN SC current chairman Yukio Takasu and UN SC members.

"The leadership of the republic of Abkhazia examined the draft resolution of the UN SC, dated February 10, 2009, on extending the mandate of the UN mission in the territory of Abkhazia. Despite certain wordings that raise our concern, of which we informed UN Secretary General Mr Ban Ki-moon in our letter dated February 10, 2009 we nevertheless reiterated our commitments to cooperation in security, non-use of force, protection of human rights and compliance with the Medvedev-Sarkozy accords," the letter said.

"Taking into account the aforesaid and the prospects for coordinating the new mandate while taking into consideration Abkhazia’s recommendations, based on the new, changed political reality, Abkhazia gives its consent to extending the UN mission in accordance with the coordinated draft resolution by the UN Security Council,” Shamba underlined.

"The Foreign Ministry of the Republic of Abkhazia notes "the significance of the UN role in the settlement of the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict and expresses the hope for keeping the UN mission in the Republic of Abkhazia."

02.12.2009  Itar-Tass

Sukhum, The foreign minister of Abkhazia officially notified the United Nations on Thursday that the Abkhazia approves the extension of the UN mission in the region until June 15.

A letter from Sergei Shamba states that Abkhazia has studied in detail the UN Security Council's draft resolution on the prolongation of the UN mission in the Georgia-Abkhazia conflict zone, as of February 10, 2009, and gives its consent for the extension of the term.

The United Nations Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG) was established in August 1993 to verify compliance with the ceasefire agreement between the governments of Georgia and Abkhazia. The October 9, 2008, resolution that extended the UN mandate to February 15, 2009, referred only to "the United Nations mission" but recalled all previous resolutions and did not change the official name of the mission.

Russia recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states on August 26, two weeks after a five-day war with Georgia, which launched an attack on South Ossetia to try and regain control of the region. Georgia and Russia have no diplomatic relations at the moment.

Unlike the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict, the UN Security Council had no role in the South Ossetian-Georgian settlement, which established the Joint Control Commission between Russia, Georgia and the South Ossetian authorities.

02.12.2009  RIA Novosti

Sochi, The Russian Ministry of Economic Development and Trade plans to open a trade mission in Abkhazia, the Russian ambassador to Abkhazia, Semyon Grigoriev, said on Tuesday.

The opening of the trading mission will ease access to the local economy for Russian businesses. So far unsettled legal issues have hindered the access of foreign investments.

“Before last August there existed no legal basis. Abkhazia was a ‘grey zone’ a self-proclaimed republic.

Making investments in it was fraught with both political and economic risks, Grigoriev said. The agreement on the mutual protection and promotion of investments is expected to change the situation for the better.

Abkhazia has a large potential in terms of the production of building materials, which would be of great help in the course of preparations for the Sochi Winter Olympics, the ambassador said.

“There will be other opportunities for using the natural and technical potential of the republic. That will be governed by separate agreements between commercial structures,” Grigoriev said.

According to a foreign ministry official, companies in many constituent territories of Russia took interest in doing business in Abkhazia. A dozen memorandums of economic cooperation have been signed between Russian regions and Abkhazia so far. In the near future Sukhum is expecting a governor-led delegation of businessmen from Russia’s Kursk Region.

02.11.2009  Itar-Tass